An anonymous online trader has made millions of rupees after correctly predicting a military strike on Tehran weeks before missiles were launched in a joint U.S.–Israel operation, raising questions about whether the trader had unusual insight into the attack. (www.ndtv.com)
The trader used a crypto-based prediction platform called Polymarket, where people place bets on real-world events such as elections, economic trends, and geopolitical developments. (www.ndtv.com)
A Profitable Prediction
According to blockchain data, the trader — operating under the name “Magamyman” — bet heavily that a strike on Tehran would happen. The bet was placed when the market estimated only about a 27% chance of military action, meaning most traders believed an attack was unlikely. (www.ndtv.com)
The account reportedly invested about $235,000 on the prediction and eventually earned around $431,000 (about ₹4 crore) after the strike took place. (www.ndtv.com)
Winning shares on the platform paid $1 per contract, turning the risky bet into a large profit once the military action was confirmed. (www.ndtv.com)
Suspicious Timing Raises Questions
Observers became concerned about the timing of some of the trader’s activity. One key trade was reportedly placed just over an hour before news of the attack became public, leading to speculation that the trader might have had advance knowledge. (www.ndtv.com)
The same account has reportedly made 88 predictions related only to Iran since October 2024, focusing almost entirely on military action and geopolitical tensions. (www.ndtv.com)
In another case, the trader is said to have earned hundreds of thousands of dollars by predicting that Israel would strike Iran before a specific deadline. (www.ndtv.com)
Betting on War
Prediction markets like Polymarket allow users to trade contracts based on the probability of real-world events, including conflicts and political decisions. (The Forward)
Supporters say these markets reflect public expectations, but critics warn they could encourage speculation on crises or even reward people with access to confidential information. (The Forward)
Ongoing Conflict
The bets were linked to escalating tensions that eventually led to a major U.S.–Israel military operation targeting Iran, including strikes in Tehran. (www.ndtv.com)
As fighting continues in the region, the mysterious trader still reportedly holds new positions predicting further military action. (www.ndtv.com)